Predicting the development of severe alcohol use disorder is difficult and opened the door for longitudinal research opportunities to assess the best practices for approaching individuals who may be at risk for developing alcohol use disorder. In this study by Miller and colleagues, a total of 15,928 individuals were assessed longitudinally for their risk of developing AUD. These researchers found that individuals who met at least 1 of the high-risk criteria were more likely to progress to severe AUD. Even individuals who met 2-5 of the criteria for mild-to-moderate AUD without one of the high-risk criteria were less likely to develop severe AUD compared to those who met 1 of the high-risk criteria. Higher-risk criteria include failure to fulfill major role obligations because of drinking, drinking despite physical/psychological problems, giving up/reducing important activities, withdrawal, craving, and spending a great deal of time drinking. Earlier ages for an individual's first drink, regular drinking, and first intoxication were significantly more likely to progress to severe AUD.
Reference:
Miller AP et al. JAMA Netw Open. 2023;6(10):e2337192. Abstract